On 8 June 2021, HORASIS: the Global Visions Community held its annual Global Meeting, co-chaired by Murat Seitnepesov, Chairman of Caspian Week. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the event was held as a virtual meeting. Its key sessions were: Unlocking Investment Opportunities in the Greater Caspian Region; The Greater Caspian Region: Spearheading Shared Leadership; Preparing for a New Pandemic: Global System for Preparedness for Disease X; and Competition and Cooperation: The Global Promise of a Technology Olympics. In the first session, Unlocking Investment Opportunities in the Greater Caspian Region (watch here), the panelists discussed the structural trends that could be translated into investment opportunities in the region.
As pointed out by Nusret Comert (Chairman, Damnus Energy & Investment, Turkey), the Greater Caspian Region is one of the most important and interesting regions in the world. It is rich in oil, gas and minerals, and has vast renewable resources such as wind, solar and hydro power. In the new era its importance will grow with renewables. Private investors, as well as big oil and gas companies, should put renewable energy on their investment agenda. There is room for more cooperation between Turkey and other countries in the region, on both security and energy.
Andreas Schweitzer (Managing Director, Arjan Capital, United Kingdom) said payment is a big issue for these countries, since dollar clearing is difficult. One possible solution is payment in cryptocurrencies, which is also a great crowdfunding opportunity. Murat Seitnepesov (Chairman, Caspian Week, Switzerland) shared this view.
Holger Wagner (Founder, Wagner & Partners, UAE) stressed that the key to stability in an economy and society is raising overall income, purchasing power and living standards. The first step is foreign direct investment, which goes through joint ventures, because you cannot work in these countries without a local partner. The next step could be IPOs, which open the door to other investors. Retail is one of the ways forward, and there is a tremendous opportunity because the market is very fragmented in all these countries (excluding Turkey). Murat Seitnepesov mentioned several success stories in attracting foreign investors into the region. In a little more than four years Uzbekistan began to open up, cancelled visas for almost 100 countries, and is now really moving forward with economic reforms. A second good example is Azerbaijan, where a "single window" concept called "ASAN service" lets businesses complete all business registration in just a few hours. Several industrial zones were also created there, where production can be done with moderate taxes or even tax exemptions. Another example is the Asana International Financial Centre in Kazakhstan, which introduced English law and English arbitration into its legal system. Investors feel safe working under English law, an internationally recognised legal system.
The second session, The Greater Caspian Region: Spearheading Shared Leadership (watch here), was devoted to cooperation between countries in the region and beyond.
Matthew Bryza (Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, USA) outlined new ways to pull Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Europe together through telecoms, the "Digital Silk Road". A good example of cooperation is an agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on a disputed oil and gas field in the middle of the Caspian Sea. In Afghanistan, an agreement signed between the US and the Taliban gives the country a chance to connect to the Indian Ocean and, through Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea, to Europe. Abdullah Khenjani (Senior Deputy Minister for Peace, Afghanistan) echoed this and made three points: 1) Afghanistan is the missing part of the chain in regional connectivity, but the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has created an opportunity to bring peace and stability; 2) no country in the region wants Afghanistan to become another ground for regional terrorists; 3) this is also a chance for Afghanistan to redefine its relationship with the region and beyond. Murat Seitnepesov (Chairman, Caspian Week, Switzerland) stressed that this process matters not only for Afghanistan but for the whole region. Countries bordering Afghanistan are waiting for the situation to improve.
Babar Badat (Immediate Past President, FIATA, Pakistan) was excited by what is happening on the business side. He believes global best practices should be adopted in different regions. A professional private sector should be able to jump the hedge and create partnerships.
Claude Beglé (Chairman of Swiss-China World Silk Road Association, Switzerland) confirmed that the Caspian region and Central Asia are a land of huge opportunities. The main issue to resolve, however, is the initial lack of stability. The Silk Road initiative should be considered in the context of many external influences on the region, as well as the tribal structures in many of those countries. China’s impact is good and bad at the same time. It helps build infrastructure and ports, but it also means China is getting involved in local politics. It is very important to stay prudent. What is really needed is how to get connected without becoming dependent.
One of the most thought-provoking topics of the Horasis meeting was Preparing for a New Pandemic: Global System for Preparedness for Disease X (watch here).
The main question was: is it possible to create a global system made up of cutting-edge technologies and the right organisational structure to identify the next, currently unknown pathogen before it develops into a possible pandemic?
Murat Seitnepesov (Chairman, Caspian Week, Switzerland) pointed out that today’s knowledge about COVID-19 and other potential epidemics or pandemics is very fragmented. A project to gather and consolidate all the knowledge available in the world, the GSPDX, was announced on 18 March 2021. It will definitely contribute to the World Health Organization (WHO) initiative to create a Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence with the German government. On 4 June, a patent application for the method was filed with the Swiss and European Patent Offices.
He presented the project in detail. The first stage is to collect data on known pathogens, whether viruses or bacteria. In the second stage, we will need real data sets from clinics: parameters, symptoms and the diagnosis. The machine learning algorithm will then work on these data sets and teach itself. The third stage is practical implementation: sensors and analysers at airports will check passengers’ temperature, air and sewage water. The algorithm will already know which parameters and symptoms correspond to each pathogen, so we can detect known pathogens such as COVID-19. The fourth stage is detecting unknown pathogens. If the algorithm finds an unusual combination of parameters and symptoms, the system will alert the relevant authorities, who can carry out analysis and try to work out what the pathogen was.
Manuel Carballo (Executive Director, ICMHD, Switzerland) outlined the pros and cons of WHO’s involvement in the project. The positive factors are: 1) all countries are WHO members; 2) it has the official capacity to issue recommendations and to organise international databases. The negative aspects are: 1) WHO can say things countries are not necessarily expected to follow; 2) official health statistics vary in quantity, quality and accessibility; 3) the validity of data will always reflect the extent to which a country has been able to gather it.
Looking for a combination of symptom data opens up a whole new area of research. Mathematical algorithms are highly scientific and more credible today than any other source of information. Whether a pathogen becomes an epidemic or pandemic will depend on a range of social and environmental factors. Climate change will be a critical factor in where new pathogens come from, and in how existing ones spread. Urban slums in developing countries offer the most favourable conditions for new pathogens to emerge or existing ones to spread.
Ernesto Kahan (Scientific Director, Galilea Institute, Israel) presented some political and philosophical consequences of this academic work. It is important for societies to prepare for new serious epidemics and pandemics, because they have a major medical, social and economic impact. Two characteristic examples are the Plague in the Middle Ages and the Spanish flu in the middle of the First World War. A couple of days ago a new avian flu was discovered in China, which may be even more aggressive than coronavirus. However, this project is not easy to implement, and it has to start in small countries.
A new idea, an Olympics-style international competition around technology, was put forward in the session The Global Promise of a Technology Olympics (watch here).
Steve Hellman (Founder, Mobility Impact Partners, USA) believes a new Olympiad to find the world’s most talented people in science, technology, engineering and mathematics could channel competition into global goodwill. It should include team events such as robotics, and even events for corporations or institutions, for example in quantum computing. The point is to involve national heroes in technology, who can act as role models and drive interest in these fields. The two major challenges are 1) the diplomatic challenge of bringing 197 countries together to take part; and 2) making the competition interesting.
Timur Kim (Senior Scientist, Diamond Light Source, United Kingdom) and Murat Seitnepesov (Chairman, Caspian Week, Switzerland) shared their experience of science Olympic competitions in the former Soviet Union. The tradition grew very quickly after 1967, when the government fully backed it. Children in every school could take part. Students could start at school level and, if they won, move on to district, regional, republic and all-Union competitions. It was a pyramid for selecting the brightest people. According to Murat Seitnepesov, what is needed now is scientific support for young professionals, who could get proper funding by winning such Olympic Games. On this basis, young scientists could be recognised much earlier. Today is the right moment for such an initiative, as society has been reshaped by the coronavirus pandemic, climate problems and digitalisation. There is also a great opportunity for corporations, governments and research institutes to recruit brilliant young scientists. Timur Kim noted that such competitions can also lead to international contests between countries, which is a great way for young students to attract attention. Unfortunately, it is not well known to the general public. The main players most likely to be really interested are China, the United States, Russia, South Korea and several European countries.
The idea got full support from José Ramón Calvo (President, Institute of Multidisciplinary Research, Spain) and Andrew Flett (CEO, Growth Control Capital, USA). José Ramón Calvo spoke about the Campus of Excellence (Spain), which is now being revitalised. It focuses on students who have just graduated. They can share their projects with others, and especially with talented people such as Nobel laureates. Andrew Flett said it was important to balance what is scientifically important with what is engaging. We need content that engages the younger generation and entertains. We should bring together people from the media and the scientific community, lock them in a room and get them to come up with lots of ideas. We can use all platforms to distribute this content in a way that is easy to consume for people who want to engage with these fields.
Matthew Bryza (Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, USA) concluded that we are increasingly dependent on technology. As technology has developed, we have grown far more dependent on it. Who would have imagined a year ago that we would have a vaccine within a year, when it usually takes at least 10 years? We have to make sure the technological Olympiad is commercially viable.