Climate Change, Covid-19 and the Effect on Energy's Future

On January 22, 2020 in Davos we had very insightful discussion on "Energy transition in the Greater Caspian Region: development and emissions". Significant changes occurred since then.

Now we invite you to join us on Wednesday, July 15, 16:00 – 17:00 Zurich time for online session Climate Change, Covid-19 and the Effect on Energy's Future. Mr. Ray Leonard, Founder and CEO, Anglo Eurasia LLC will share key updates on the subject. The presentation will be followed by in-depth discussion of recent trends and future outlook.

Fossil fuels have led to a profound increase in world living standards but resulting emissions of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere are a primary factor in climate change. Atmospheric content of CO2 and methane have risen 146% and 257% respectively since pre-industrial time and the rate of increase through 2019 has accelerated. If significant steps are not taken in the coming decade to halt the increase in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), a phase may be reached in the 2030-2050-time frame described as a "tipping point", in which steady changes may be replaced by a large-scale change in the climate system.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 has resulted in a significant decrease in world economic activity, which in turn has led to a major, if temporary, decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2. This temporary decrease is not likely to materially affect the longer-term process of climate change that is taking place. However, the overall Covid-19-related effects have exposed a few important points: (1) the world's inability without leadership to respond in a coordinated manner to a global challenge, (2) the fragility of the world economic system and potential for collapse when faced
with a natural challenge such as a pandemic or climate tipping point and (3) how quickly air pollution in densely populated areas dissipates when fossil fuel use declines.

The lessons from the collapse of economic activity and drastic reduction in use of fossil fuels in 2020 gives rise to the potential for a "reset" in the coming years considering the changed economic circumstances and accelerating climate change. However, taking all factors into account for the energy industry and the global economy, there are three potential paths:
- Business as Usual: Continuation of energy trends and GHG emissions increase of 1.5-2.0% annual increase prior to the pandemic after economic recovery
- Transition to lower GHG fuels: Freeze GHG emissions at level coming out of pandemic by shift from coal to gas as transition fuel while building up renewables to allow actual reduction after 2040
- Green shift: Continue reduction of GHG emissions during pandemic by massive shift in energy use away from fossil fuels

To join this webinar please register in advance:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_4ui5uKxqSWOl-bpeFXNZ_w

The webinar will also be on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/c/CaspianWeek