On January 22, 2020, in Davos, we held a very insightful discussion on "Energy transition in the Greater Caspian Region: development and emissions". Significant changes have happened since then.
Join us on Wednesday, July 15, 16:00 – 17:00 Zurich time for our online session Climate Change, Covid-19 and the Effect on Energy's Future. Mr. Ray Leonard, Founder and CEO of Anglo Eurasia LLC, will share key updates. The presentation will be followed by an in-depth discussion of recent trends and the outlook ahead.
Fossil fuels have raised living standards around the world, but the CO2 and methane they release are a main driver of climate change. Since pre-industrial times, atmospheric CO2 and methane have risen by 146% and 257% respectively, and the rate of increase has accelerated through 2019. If significant steps are not taken in the coming decade to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we may reach what is described as a "tipping point" in the 2030–2050 timeframe, when steady change could give way to a large-scale change in the climate system.
The Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 sharply reduced world economic activity, which brought a major, if temporary, drop in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2. This temporary drop is unlikely to change the longer-term course of climate change. However, the pandemic exposed a few important points: (1) without leadership, the world cannot respond in a coordinated way to a global challenge; (2) the world economic system is fragile and could collapse when faced with a natural challenge, such as a pandemic or a climate tipping point; and (3) air pollution in densely populated areas clears quickly when fossil fuel use declines.
The lessons from the sharp fall in economic activity and fossil fuel use in 2020 open the door to a "reset" in the coming years, given changed economic circumstances and accelerating climate change. Taking all factors into account for the energy industry and the global economy, there are three possible paths. Business as usual means energy trends continue and GHG emissions rise by 1.5–2.0% a year, as before the pandemic, after economic recovery. A transition to lower-GHG fuels freezes emissions at their post-pandemic level by shifting from coal to gas as a transition fuel while building up renewables, allowing actual reductions after 2040. A green shift keeps cutting GHG emissions by moving energy use massively away from fossil fuels.
To join this webinar, please register in advance: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_4ui5uKxqSWOl-bpeFXNZ_w
The webinar will also stream on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/c/CaspianWeek