HORASIS: the Global Visions Community held its annual Global Meeting virtually on May 20, 2022. The meeting was co-chaired by Murat Seitnepesov, President of Caspian Week Forum.
Murat moderated the session "Greater Caspian Region: Geopolitics, Trade and a Shared Future".
The Greater Caspian Region is one of the world's foremost transport and trade hubs. Further cooperation between neighbouring states will advance the region's development and boost trade between and beyond the Caspian Sea. What are the region's most pressing needs, and how can it unlock its potential?
Find more on this session:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXfwc4pk9dE&list=PLxI3Fz5ugBVz_F1q5k7b4ZAqmT-oz23UM&index=39
The Greater Caspian Region is home to one of the largest natural gas reserves on Earth, and it has become a key focus for European countries. The main issue is how to enable that export, and the logistical and trade limits that hold back development in the region. Turkmenistan has experienced this first-hand. It has been shunned by European countries despite its massive gas resources, because it lacks export routes. Many routes pass through Turkey, now the main export hub for oil and gas to Europe as Russian routes are off the table, yet Turkmenistan remains cut out of this bonanza.
Matthew Bryza (Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, USA) offered one solution: a virtual pipeline for liquefied and compressed gas moved in containers, which would let Turkmenistan export directly to Europe.
Sham Bathija (Former Minister and Advisor to the President of Afghanistan) brought up a more traditional alternative: a physical gas pipeline, the Afghanistan–Pakistan–India pipeline. The project would have a tremendous impact not only on Turkmenistan as an exporter, but also on the other countries involved, Afghanistan included.
The development of Afghanistan would be very useful for stabilising the region and promoting trade, as the country was historically a key trading hub in the Greater Caspian Region. However, the situation has deteriorated sharply since the Taliban's return. There are now many roadblocks to this project and to Afghanistan's revival as a trade hub: security, no formal political recognition of the Taliban government, human rights virtually suspended, and foreign reserves blocked at the IMF and in the USA. There is some hope, though. India is supporting Pakistan and Afghanistan more and more, with food and vaccines, for instance, despite political tensions. That has given support to moderate groups: in Pakistan they lawfully ousted the Islamist government, and in Afghanistan they are fostering discussions among resistance groups. A first concrete result could be this pipeline, as it would force countries to deepen cooperation in the region, something Stiphan Beher (Former Adviser to the President of Kyrgyzstan) agreed with. Bryza also agreed, adding that now the situation in Afghanistan is out of US control, the Biden administration may turn to Iran as a transit hub, which all participants welcomed.
Closer international cooperation can do a lot for the development of the region, as shown by the recently signed Turkmenistan–Azerbaijan principal agreement for the joint development of an oil and gas field in the Caspian Sea. According to Bryza, the US administration has always welcomed closer inter-Caspian cooperation and welcomed the news. It has also backed the emergence of a regional leader to drive the region's development, but it has always opposed China in that role, hence its Belt and Road Initiative. Kyrgyzstan, however, has managed to reap the benefits of its role as an East-West hub without subjugating itself to external foreign policies. According to Beher, this helped its development on many fronts, although he had to admit that water supply was clearly not one of them. There are currently many local conflicts over water supply, and the main task is to mediate them. The key to stability in the area would be to renegotiate water supply agreements, which is another argument for closer international cooperation in the region.
The Greater Caspian Region includes 16 countries around the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, up to Afghanistan and northern Pakistan. It covers 5 million square kilometres and has a population of 500 million people.
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Greater Caspian Association