On July 24, 2021, Caspian Week, as Horasis' strategic partner, took part in the annual Horasis India Meeting, co-hosted by HORASIS: the Global Visions Community and the Confederation of Indian Industries. This virtual event was co-chaired by Murat Seitnepesov, Chairman of the Caspian Week Forum. India's economic growth was among the strongest in the world, averaging 7.4% until 2018/19, but it has been weaker since the first half of 2019. Economic indicators suggest India has put the COVID-19 shock behind it. Find more on our key sessions: Indian Exploration of Trade with the Greater Caspian Region; Boosting Supply Chain Viability for Competitive Advantage; and How do we Detect the Next Dangerous Virus, before it's too late?.
The first session, Indian Exploration of Trade with the Greater Caspian Region, focused on facilitating trade and investment between India and the Greater Caspian Region (GCR).
Murat Seitnepesov (Chairman of Caspian Week and President of the Greater Caspian Association, Switzerland) gave a brief presentation on the economic potential of India and the GCR. According to Rakesh Gaur (President, Railways, Kalpataru Power Transmission and Co-Chair of the Central Asian Committee of CII, India), the GCR market is very important for India, both for energy security and as a gateway to the CIS and to Europe. India can offer healthcare services to GCR countries. Other areas of possible cooperation include energy construction projects, and education and training.
However, the consumer market is still to be explored, and many countries in the Caspian area need geopolitical stabilisation.
Sham Bathija (Former Minister and Senior Advisor for Economic Affairs to the President of Afghanistan) supported this, saying that political issues are faced not only by the GCR but by the whole of South Asia. The Afghan situation, for example, should be addressed by the whole Caspian region, and Turkey also has an important role to play.
According to Mr. Gaur, connectivity becomes a major challenge as soon as the political situation changes. The second issue is that banks do not want to risk problems with the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). The third is the investment climate, which is not very friendly. Another major problem is visa requirements and air connectivity.
Mr. Bathija went further on connectivity. The heart of the matter is transit. India has invested heavily in Chabahar port, and it would be fantastic if a road were built through the Zaranj area and then the Kandahar area. Another solution could be to link the ports of Bombay or Kolkata directly to Chabahar, even with small and medium-sized vessels.
Gulnara Salimova (President and Managing Director, Uzbek-Swiss Chamber of Commerce and Industry) joined the discussion on connectivity. Uzbekistan sits right in the middle of Central Asia. Seven international corridors already exist, and more are being developed to connect Uzbekistan with its neighbours.
Ms. Salimova also said the full potential of economic ties between India and Uzbekistan has not yet been reached. Uzbekistan is keen to develop cooperation with India in several industries. One is pharmaceuticals, where Uzbekistan has seven free economic zones just for this industry. Another is the medical sector, as many Uzbek patients go to India. Indian companies have also expressed interest in airport construction and reconstruction, agriculture and the textiles sector.
In conclusion, Mr. Seitnepesov pointed to other GCR countries. Azerbaijan set up a "one window service" called ASAN, and also created a free trade zone and three industrial zones with a very moderate tax regime. In Kazakhstan, Astana became an international financial centre that accepted English law and English arbitration for resolving disputes. Georgia has digitised its government and economy effectively. In sum, these countries have a really good investment and business climate, where Indian investors could come and do business.
The second session, Boosting Supply Chain Viability for Competitive Advantage, focused on how digitising supply could help Indian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) cut their sourcing costs.
Shamika Sirimanne (Director, Division on Technology and Logistics, UNCTAD) described in detail the many layers of red tape that SMEs face in international trade. It is very hard for SMEs to find the right information, obtain permits and licences, and get logistics services. As a result, many SMEs would not dare to enter international trade.
Shreekant Somany (Chairman and Managing Director, Somany Ceramics and Chairman of MSME National Council of CII, India) added that the main hindrances are technology and, especially, digitisation. According to Ashok Saigal (Managing Director, Frontier Technologies, and Co-Chairman of MSME National Council of CII, India), freight rates also need to be addressed: "currently, we're paying about 10 000 dollars to ship a 40-foot container from India to Europe when the goods in that container may cost 40 000 dollars". Another issue for MSMEs is finance. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has helped MSMEs put their applications in a bankable format.
Ms. Sirimanne suggested creating an SME National Council as one solution. Many trade barriers cannot be tackled by the private sector alone, so they need a public-private partnership. All WTO members should have a National Trade Facilitation Committee to address red tape. Another area to explore is digital solutions, particularly customs automation. UNCTAD has automated customs in about a hundred developing countries and created a "single window" for traders. It has also set up Trade Information Portals in more than 40 countries. E-commerce has potential, but to get there, you need digital skills, a platform and, above all, an e-payment system. Finally, there is the logistics network.
Mr. Somany reminded us that India has 65 million MSMEs, employing 120 million people. They account for 40% of exports and 42% of GDP. Bringing MSMEs into global supply chains is an important task. Several industry clusters could already form a fruitful global supply chain, such as automobiles, textiles, other engineering industries and farming.
Mr. Saigal echoed this, saying India has been seen to have tremendous potential for 20 years, and the time has come to turn that potential into reality. India offers several competitive advantages to any buyer: 1) communication in English; 2) transparency: you can walk into any part of India, talk to your customer and see things firsthand; 3) facilities able to produce technically sophisticated, good-quality products; and 4) proximity to Europe.
However, a lot of work is needed to make doing business easier for MSMEs.
Cristiano Fibbi (Head of Strategy, Integral Group, Switzerland) presented a business model that addresses the concerns raised by other speakers, connecting producers in the GCR with end users worldwide by container. Indian SMEs have no direct access to producers. They face fragmented, incomplete information, and either buy through a long chain of intermediaries or try to pool orders into a bigger one, which pushes up the price. They also lack a structured export channel. The solution was Integral Commodities, a webshop where exporters get direct access to customers worldwide, mainly SMEs. The key point is that Indian SMEs can order small container volumes delivered straight to their factory or farm. They can also pay and trace the delivery fully online. Because logistics is critical, Caspian Container Company was set up. It offers containers to regional exporters and stabilises the flow and prices.
Stephen Edkins (Chief Executive Officer, Rice Exchange, Singapore) gave a specific example: the Rice Exchange, a global digital marketplace for rice that is present in over 30 countries. It has a proper database of producers certified by inspection companies.
At the end of the discussion, Mr. Somany and Mr. Saigal answered questions from Mahesh K. Kotecha (CEO of Structured Credit International Corporation) and Raghav Kanori (Partner, Anchor Group, Switzerland).
The third session, How do we Detect the Next Dangerous Virus, before it's too late?, explored whether we could create a global system to identify and limit "Disease X".
Murat Seitnepesov (Chairman of Caspian Week and President of the Greater Caspian Association) presented the ideology and stages of the GSPDX project, officially launched on 18 March 2021 at the Horasis Extraordinary Meeting. There is no doubt the next pandemic will come; it is just a matter of time. The question is which pathogen will cause it, and how it can be detected at the earliest possible stage.
Mr. Seitnepesov pointed out that in Barcelona the COVID-19 virus was present nine months before it was officially detected.
José Ramón Calvo (President, Institute of Multidisciplinary Research, Spain) believes GSPDX will be a milestone in the fight against future pandemics. There have been several in the past, such as the plague in the Middle Ages and the Spanish Flu in the middle of the First World War, and the only way to fight them was lockdown. Science has advanced a great deal since the Middle Ages, but the way to resolve such crises is still the same. We have a chance to go one step further. Looking for a combination of symptom data opens up a whole new area of research. Mathematical algorithms are highly scientific, and more critical today than any other source of information.
Vesselin Popovski (Professor and Vice Dean of Law School, O.P. Jindal Global University, India) underlined that today was the right time to launch the project. He identified five major gaps in governance and pandemics: 1) leadership; 2) international cooperation; 3) medical capacity; 4) the human-to-human relationship; and 5) the human relationship with nature. One issue is how data privacy and human rights can be linked to regulate future pandemics. International law is also needed. Artificial intelligence needs proper regulation through new international legislation. He reiterated his proposal for a new Health Security Council, which could speed up the work of the WHO. It could have 25 members who would drive the process and work daily to adopt and enforce regulations.
Answering a question from Murat Seitnepesov, Prof. Popovski confirmed the importance of public-private partnership, not only for health but also for the Sustainable Development Goals. 20 years ago the United Nations created the Global Compact, which brought together more than 5000 companies. Governments have the power to enforce rules and ensure citizens comply, while the private sector drives individual initiative, entrepreneurship and intellectual property.
Claude Beglé (Chairman, Symbioswiss, Switzerland) made it clear that GSPDX is not about preventing the next pandemic, but about early detection. The project has two phases, with two key benefits. The first phase covers known diseases. Data is collected at any large gathering, such as an airport, commercial centre or football match, without touching people. Only those who show symptoms are stopped, and they go to hospital. There, step two is the prevention of the potential next disease.
Mr. Beglé also noted that personal data protection was paramount. It is easier to collect data in some countries than in others. He agreed that GSPDX should combine the private sector and government, and high tech with civil services. He fully supported the idea of the Health Security Council.
Manuel Carballo (Executive Director, ICMHD, Switzerland) said GSPDX should be seen as predictive, not clinically detective. Pandemics still catch countries by surprise. In his view, the main reasons are policymakers' lack of interest and the difficulty of explaining scientific data to policymakers and the public. Pandemics are controversial both politically and scientifically. It is important not only to detect a new virus but also to ensure political action at all levels to combat it. Testing at airports matters, but it is not the only part of GSPDX. The project should be public-health oriented. The beauty of GSPDX is its mathematical approach, but underneath it there should be a strong public health component. India has excellent scientists, but it was still caught unprepared by COVID-19. Indian authorities have not taken into account the social, economic and demographic factors that could lead to new viruses. The next pandemic may emerge in urban slums.